Reform UK election pledge could have significant impact on Northumberland

The party currently hold three of the county’s four constituencies following the 2019 election.

However, according to the election model created by Britain Elects and the New Statesman magazine, the Tories could lose all of them if an election were held at current polling figures.

It follows bold claims by Richard Tice, the Brexit-backing leader of Reform UK – the party that evolved from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. In 2019, the Brexit Party agreed to step aside in a number of key Labour-Tory battlegrounds, helping the Conservatives towards victory.

However, speaking at a press conference Mr Tice warned there would be no such deals this time round.

Afterwards, the odds of a Labour majority were slashed from 1/5 to 2/9, according to AltIndex.

As it stands, Reform have two prospective parliamentary candidates put forward for Northumberland constituencies.

Calum MacGregor looks set to contest the new Cramlington and Killingworth constituency, while Mark Peart will fight for the Blyth and Ashington seat.

Mr Peart stood in the Blyth Valley constituency for the Brexit Party in 2019, taking 8.3% of the vote, with Conservative Ian Levy prevailing over Labour’s Susan Dungworth by 712 votes.

The party’s website claims that a PPC will be announced for the remaining constituencies in Northumberland in the near future.

It should be noted that the electoral map is currently using the constituencies as they were prior to the 2023 Boundary Commission review, which saw significant changes.

In the Hexham constituency, current polling puts Labour on 42%, with the Conservatives trailing on 32.9%. Reform meanwhile are polling at 9%.

The current model also predicts a very narrow win for Labour in Berwick, receiving 33.8% of the vote compared to the Conservatives on 31.5%. Reform are predicted to receive 10.7%.

Labour are predicted to win far more comfortably in Blyth Valley. Labour are currently predicted to win 54.2% of the vote, compared to the Conservatives on 23.4%.

Those behind the election model say it is “one of the more advanced daily predictors of a general election result”. However, it is also acknowledged that it is just a model and, “like every model, it has its limitations and assumptions”.